Professional Observation
Basic Information
Observation Details
Observation Date:
January 25, 2021Submitted:
January 25, 2021Observer:
TAC - Andy BondZone or Region:
Taos AreaLocation:
Remotely Triggering Avalanches and Natural AvalanchesSigns of Unstable Snow
Recent Avalanches?
YesCracking?
WidespreadCollapsing?
WidespreadSnow Stability
Stability Rating:
Very PoorConfidence in Rating:
HighStability Trend:
SteadyBottom Line
It's already touchy and with more snow in the forecast tonight into tomorrow we could be heading towards a more widespread natural avalanche cycle as we load slopes even more testing our weak faceted layers.
Media
Advanced Information
Weather Summary
Cloud Cover:
OvercastTemperature:
8 - 20Wind:
Light , WLight orographic snow throughout the day with about 1 inch of additional accumulation. Light west winds with not much snow moving however there is a lot of snow available for transport right now.
Avalanche Observations
| # | Date | Location | Size | Type | Bed Sfc | Depth | Trigger | Comments | Photo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Today |
Rolls on the South side bowl behind Lake Fork NE 11,900' |
SS | O-Old Snow | Unknown |
AS-Skier r-Remote |
I remotely triggered this avalanche roughly 300' below the crown |
|
Visibility wasn't great but there were several natural avalanches observed mainly above treeline on North and East aspects that most likely ran sometime early this morning. Sin Nombre, Wildy Bowl and the high traverse all had natural crowns and large debris piles visible.
Snowpack Observations
No snowpits today, there is only so many failures on isolation in long column tests to tell you what the snowpack structure is. I got on several test slopes and remotely triggered many avalanches today. Conditions are touchy out there right now and any steep slope should be considered suspect. With more snow in the forecast tonight into tomorrow we could be heading to an avalanche warning!
Avalanche Problems
| Problem | Location | Distribution | Sensitivity | Size | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Persistent Slab
|
|
It's a hard distinction between storm slabs and the persistent slab problem we have. On many slopes, it's the storm slab (1 - 3 feet) failing on a cohesionless faceted snowpack. On other slopes that have hard slabs and faceted weak layers we still need the load and storm slab to get an avalanche. In my opinion, the more likely scenario right now is that any avalanche is going to break into faceted weak layers, or at least that's the way you should think. You may get just the storm snow to move, however, the more likely scenario is that it's going to fail in a faceted weak layer.
Terrain Use
Kept it very conservative avoiding runouts but getting on small test slopes to see if I couldn't get an avalanche. It's always eye opening to get a collapse and look up to see a powder cloud off in the distance.
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